Resource Adequacy Methodologies & Toolkit

Special Evaluation of ELCC

May 19-20, 2021 | Online ::

0521-resource-adequacy

Resource adequacy is one of the critical measures power system analysts use to model reliability of service – an essential requirement – for a utility or power system operator. The recent, storm-induced distress experienced by the grid across Texas and parts of the midwestern U.S. states underscored how important and difficult it is properly to assure such resource adequacy.

In this course, attendees will dive into multiple methodologies that simulate power conditions necessary to establish and maintain resource adequacy: 

• Methods and metrics used to estimate system resource capacity
• Strategies for dealing with increased penetration of renewable energy resources
• System resource adequacy assessment “in real-time” before a modeling approach is finalized
• New techniques that engineers are evaluating to improve resource adequacy modeling efficacy

For early-stage, intermediate and advanced power system planners, this course is a must! 

Learning Outcomes

Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions and exercises that will allow them to:

• Review the important role that properly assessing resource adequacy plays in ensuring reliability on a power system
• Examine the multiple methods and metrics used to estimate system resource adequacy
• Discuss NERC’s role in evaluating grid-level assessments to determine risk of load loss and how those reliability assessments must adapt to reflect changes brought on by renewable energy-induced and other system developments
• Identify the impacts that increasing penetration of renewable and variable energy resources are having on traditional resource adequacy analysis
• Evaluate methodologies for estimating capacity contributions of variable and duration (non-firm) resources
• Assess the outlook for capturing new grid requirements in updated resource adequacy measures
• Discuss what issues a new resource adequacy approach must address to constitute an advance in contemporary and future best practice
• Distinguish perspectives on a modeling spectrum for moving forward
• Analyze the ELCC method of assigning capacity value to resources as a progressive step towards development of updated resource adequacy modeling tools
• Describe a path forward to guide planners who must assess resource adequacy “in real-time” before a modeling approach is finalized

Wednesday, May 19, 2021 : Central Time

Overview of Establishing a Planning Margin — What, Why History, and Evolution

Why Resource Adequacy is Such an Issue Now and, in the Years to Come

• Calif 2020 Blackout Lessons Learned

NERC Reliability Assessments: Approaches to Evaluate Emerging Resource Adequacy Challenges

NERC, as the designated Electric Reliability Organization, has the obligation to conduct periodic assessments of bulk-power system reliability. As part of those efforts, NERC evaluates long-term resource adequacy using a variety of approaches, including scenario and probabilistic-based analysis to determine its findings. As the system continues to fundamentally change its resource mix from larger central station, dispatchable, and fuel-secure generation to that of more distributed, variable, and energy limited generation, grid-level assessments to determine risk of load loss must also adapt.

Power Organizations and Systems that Must Evaluate and Model Resource Adequacy

• Utilities
• ISOs and RTOs
• Other balancing areas

Considering Various Resource Adequacy Metrics and Comparing Outcomes

• Loss of load probability (LOLP)
• Loss of load hours/loss of load expectations (LOLE/LOLH)
• Expected unserved energy (EUE)
• Relationship to expected value of lost load (VOLL)

12:30 – 1:15 p.m. :: Lunch Break

1:15 – 5:00 pm :: Afternoon Session (Includes breaks)

Overlaying Renewables Era Planning onto Reliability Concepts

• Changing conceptions of supply reliability planning
• Peak capacity versus flexible capacity
  • Do we need to develop a better term than flexible or do we just need to understand better what it encompasses?
• Planning for peak reliability
  • Loss of load probability analysis
  • Reserve margin
  • Cost versus supply risk trade-off
  • Effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) of renewables and storage
• Ancillary services
• Relationship between regulation, INC/DEC, and ramping
• Assessing impact of increased renewable penetration on flexible resource requirements

Evaluating Capacity Contributions of Variable and Duration (Non-Firm) Resources

• Intermittent renewables
  • Wind – terrestrial and off-shore
  • Solar – distributed and utility-scale
• Energy-limited – storage and demand response

Case Study of Resource Adequacy Considerations in Utility IRP

The Outlook for Capturing New Grid Requirements in Updated Resource Adequacy Measures

• In the current planning paradigm, are the traditional models and metrics satisfactory?
• Why or why not?
• If not, can the current models and metric be used to forge improved contemporary – much less – new methodologies?
• Can there be a uniform standard?
• Should there be a uniform standard?
• What are the next steps?
• What would be the timing?
• Was the California supply shortage of 2020 a “perfect storm” that can point the way to what is needed going forward?

5:00 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for Day

Thursday, May 20, 2021 : Central Time

Value and Relevance of Using Revised Adequacy Planning Measure(s)

• What issues must a new approach address to constitute an advance in contemporary and future best practice?
• Reflecting properly the different “maturities” of renewable energy and DER penetration conditions
• Regional coordination of modeling system conditions and local outcomes
• Distributed resource co-optimization, especially between the distribution and bulk power systems
• Differentiating modeling requirements between vertically integrated utilities, distribution utilities in competitive market systems and other power systems
• What benefits would a new measure bring?

Perspectives on a Modeling Spectrum for Moving Forward

• Wave-length 1 – “brute force” modeling approach
  • Criteria to evaluate portfolio
  • Resources available to deploy and modeling until they work
• Wave-length 2 – Developing uniform products
  • Portfolio requirements to satisfy load
• Finding a balance between opposite ends of the spectrum

Evaluating ELCC as (Part of) a Path Forward

What’s Promising

• ELCC credits to individual resources are technology-neutral and can accurately reflect their unique characteristics
• ELCC credits directly reflect the nature of each resource’s interactions with the portfolio, including both diminishing returns and diversity benefits

What’s Vexing

• The interactive effects between renewables and storage
• The declining marginal capacity value of energy storage

Possible Barriers to Applying ELCC in Varying Power System Contexts

• Competitive markets
  • Assigning to each individual resource challenging
  • Capturing declining value of storage and DR short duration resources
  • Diversity benefit
• Utilities
  • Vertically integrated
  • Cooperatives

Guidance for Planners Who Must Assess Resource Adequacy “In Real-Time”

• Can there be a uniform standard?
• Should there be a uniform standard?
• What are the next steps?
• What would be the timing?
• Applying traditional and emergent modeling tools appropriately

12:15 p.m. :: Course Adjournment

Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) Modeling

Thursday, May 20, 2021 : Central Time

Overview

This workshop will examine the methodology, tools and processes for deriving effective load carrying capacity (ELCC).  It will detail the challenges and opportunities that applying ELCC poses to IRP and other power system modelers and analysts.  And the workshop will consider ways in which the industry can collaborate to refine the elements and applicability of ELCC “in the real world” of resource adequacy planning.

Learning Outcomes

Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions and exercises that will allow them to:

• Assess when to use ELCC in developing planning reserve margin and resource adequacy assumptions
• Define the methodology to formulate correct ELCC analyses
• Evaluate and address challenges in applying ELCC
• Discuss what is still necessary to resolve before ELCC can be broadly applied as a reserve margin and resource adequacy planning standard
• Identify how and under what circumstances utilities and power system planners can collaborate to further develop and refine the use of ELCC in reserve margin and resource adequacy planning contexts

Agenda

Methodology, Tools and Processes for Deriving ELCC

Evaluating and Addressing/Resolving Challenges in Applying ELCC

• Marginal ELCC
• Average ELCC
• Diversity benefit allocation

Possible Barriers to Applying ELCC in Varying Power System Contexts

• Competitive markets
  • Assigning to each individual resource challenging
  • Capturing declining value of storage and DR short duration resources
  • Diversity benefit
• Power Systems
• Vertically integrated utilities
  • Cooperatives and G&Ts
  • Balancing areas
  • System operators

Converting ELCC into a Broad Standard

• ELCC credits to individual resources are technology-neutral and can accurately reflect their unique characteristics
• ELCC credits directly reflect the nature of each resource’s interactions with the portfolio, including both diminishing returns and diversity benefits

Industry Collaboration Opportunities and Applicability

5:00 pm :: Workshop Adjournment

Eric Gimon, Senior Fellow, Energy Innovation

Eric Gimon consults as a technical expert, research scholar, and policy adviser with Energy Innovation. He is a main contributor to America’s Power Plan, a platform for innovative thinking and collaboration on policy solutions for clean, reliable, and affordable electric power in the U.S.  Dr. Gimon holds B.S. and M.S. degrees from Stanford University in mathematics and physics, as well as a Ph.D. in physics from the University of California in Santa Barbara. He has a 15-year active career as a researcher in quantum gravity and high energy physics in some of the world’s top research institutions. Dr. Gimon’s work at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and UC Berkeley, as well as an AAAS fellowship with two Offices in the Department of Energy inspired his transition to climate and energy policy.

John Moura, Director – Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis, North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

John Moura is the Director of Reliability Assessment and System Analysis for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), where he joined in 2008.  He leads the NERC’s efforts to independently assess and report on the overall reliability, adequacy, and associated risks of the interconnected North American bulk power system.  Mr. Moura leads the development of the reliability organization’s annual long-term and seasonal reliability assessments, as well as its efforts in evaluating reliability impacts of potential environmental regulations, high-levels of variable generation, and an increasing dependence on natural gas. He is the co-author of numerous NERC special reports and several technical publications. In addition, Mr. Moura is actively engaged in multiple groups and committees across North America focused on the power system risk and vulnerability analyses, loss of load studies, probabilistic resource adequacy modeling, and interconnection-wide power system modeling.  He earned his bachelor degree from Rutgers University.

Nick Schlag, Director, Energy+Environmental Economics (E3)

Nick Schlag is a Director at E3 working in the practice areas of Renewables and Emerging Technologies, Resource Planning and Procurement, and Natural Gas. He has managed some of E3’s highest-profile projects, including a study of gas-electric coordination in the Western Interconnection commissioned by the Western Interstate Energy Board as well as the Western Interconnection Flexibility Assessment, a collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Lab to investigate how high penetrations of renewables in the Western Interconnection would impact system operations. Mr. Schlag developed and maintains E3’s RPS Calculator, which the California Public Utilities Commission and other entities use to create and analyze renewables portfolios to meet the requirements of the state’s Renewables Portfolio Standard. He is currently leading E3’s work with the CPUC to implement an integrated resource planning framework in California.Prior to working for E3, Mr. Schlag completed an MS in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University.

Erik Ela, Principal Technical Leader, Electric Power Research Institute

Erik Ela is the Principal Technical Leader at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). In his role, he provides technical leadership in several areas including electricity market design, electricity market operations, renewable energy integration, emerging technology integration, bulk power system operations, frequency control and essential reliability services, and generation planning. At EPRI, Dr. Ela facilitates the R&D collaborative group of technical experts of North America’s Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) to discuss research needs in technical areas facing the industry and leads innovative projects on how utilities and ISOs can operate the power system more efficiently and reliably. He has led several high profile research projects for government organizations and utilities across the world and spoke on these topics in over 100 venues/conferences across the world. Prior to joining EPRI in 2014, he worked for several years with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as a senior research engineer and before that for the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO). He has been involved in several working groups as a senior member of the IEEE Power and Energy Society, CIGRE, NERC, and elsewhere, including as an associate editor for the IEEE Transactions on Power Systems and currently secretary of the Power System Economics Subcommittee. Dr. Ela received his BS, MS, and PhD degrees in Electrical Engineering.

Robin Hytowitz, Senior Project Engineer – Grid Operations & Planning, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

Robin Broder Hytowitz is a senior project engineer in Grid Operations and Planning at EPRI, focusing on wholesale market design and operations, supply resilience, and renewable integration. Prior to EPRI, she completed a PhD at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD, where her dissertation developed a new energy pricing method, analyzed integration of carbon pricing into wholesale markets and suggested improvements to European reserve products considering high wind penetration. During her studies she also worked part-time in the Office of Energy Policy and Innovation at FERC, primarily researching current and proposed pricing models for wholesale electricity. Robin received her master’s degree in electrical engineering from Arizona State University, a bachelor’s degree from Barnard College, Columbia University, and was a Fulbright Fellow studying wind power integration in Denmark.

Eamonn Lannoye, Senior Project Manager & Managing Director, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 

Eamonn Lannoye is a Project Manager & Managing Director with the EPRI International. His research interest is in the area of renewable integration into power systems, with a specific focus on evolving planning, scheduling and operational procedures at the bulk system level. He is actively involved in issues surrounding forecasting, flexibility assessment and ancillary services.  Dr. Lannoye received a PhD in power system engineering and a B.E. (Hons) in mechanical engineering from University College Dublin, Ireland.

We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.

• IMPORTANT NOTE: After November 30 you will not be able to join a Teams meeting using Internet Explorer 11. Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
• You will receive a meeting invitation will include a link to join the meeting.
• Separate meeting invitations will be sent for the morning and afternoon sessions of the course.
  • You will need to join the appropriate meeting at the appropriate time.
• If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
• The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.

REGISTER NOW FOR THIS EVENT:

Resource Adequacy Methodologies & Toolkit

May 19-20, 2021 | Online

---

RELATED WORKSHOPS:

Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) Modeling

May 20

Individual attendee(s) - $ 495.00 each
	Add to Order

Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before April 16, 2021 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800

Credits

EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this event.

Requirements for Successful Completion of Program

Participants must log in each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the event to be eligible for continuing education credit.

Instructional Methods

Case studies, PowerPoint presentations, and panel discussions will be used in this program.