Energize Weekly, May 30, 2018
When it comes to electrical vehicles (EV), the focus has been on cars from Chevrolet’s Bolt EV to Tesla’s Model S, but the future of the EV market may rest with buses and trucks, according to new studies and initiatives.
By 2030, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts that 84 percent of all municipal bus sales will be for electric models, e-buses, leading to the electrification of 80 percent of the global bus fleet—with 2.4 million e-buses on the road—by 2040.
“Electric buses are one of the most promising ways of reducing harmful emissions and improving overall air quality in cities,” Bloomberg’s “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018” said. Diesel engines, which power most buses, have high nitrogen oxide emissions.
Overall, Bloomberg’s forecast shows sales of electric vehicles increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide in 2017 to 11 million in 2025 and rising to 30 million in 2030 as they become cheaper to make than internal combustion engine cars.
By 2040, 55 percent of all new car sales and 33 percent of the global fleet will be electric, Bloomberg predicts.
There are about 300,000 e-buses on the road around the world, most of them in China, which accounted for 99 percent of world sales in 2017.
Cities around the world are looking to move to e-buses. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Cape Town and Mexico City have all adopted the goal of all-electric bus fleets. On May 8, San Francisco, for example, adopted a resolution to convert its fleet to all-electric vehicles by 2035.
Chicago, the District of Columbia and St. Louis have all purchased electric buses, in some cases with the help of federal grants. In Chicago, a $15.5 million federal grant is funding 182 electric fleet vehicles including six electric airport buses, plus nine fast-charging stations and 182 lower level charging stations.
To be sure, the switch to electric buses is not without challenges or pitfalls. “Despite the potential operational savings, there are still some challenges for electric buses, with their high upfront cost compared to equivalent diesel buses being one of the biggest obstacles,” the Bloomberg report said.
The initial rollout of electric buses in Los Angeles has been riddled with poor performance and breakdowns. The buses, made in California by Chinese manufacturer BYD, in some cases had trouble with steep hills.
“As with any groundbreaking technology, issues do arise in manufacturing and performance and BYD aggressively responds and manages these issues, working with our customers and stakeholders,” the company said in a statement.
Nevertheless, the Bloomberg analysis said that e-buses have a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) than conventional buses. A 110-kilowatt-hour battery e-bus coupled with the most expensive wireless charging reaches TCO parity with a diesel bus at around 37,000 miles traveled per year, Bloomberg said.
“China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50 percent of the global EV market in 2025 and 39 percent in 2030,” Bloomberg said.
China also leads on percentage adoption of EVs with 19 percent of all passenger vehicle sales in China, followed by Europe with 14 percent and the U.S. with 11 percent. In the market “buses go faster than light duty vehicles,” Bloomberg said.
The long-haul truck market has been seen as perhaps the least likely for the penetration of EVs, but new initiatives underway may also open that segment.
The North American Council for Freight Efficiency has begun a program to promote the development of electric drivetrains and other technology innovations.
“The trucking industry is on the verge of some potentially disruptive, revolutionary changes,” the council said. “Over the past few years, discussions have matured on all-electric powertrains, automated or even self-driving trucks, e-commerce adding last-mile modes, and others. These solutions come from significant challenges for our transportation systems such as environmental impacts, urbanization, [and] population mix.”
Part of this activity is being done under the U.S. Department of Energy’s SuperTruck Program, a partnership with truck manufacturers and suppliers started in 2010 to improve freight efficiency by 50 percent.
“Fully electric trucks, often referred to as battery electric trucks, are reaching wider-scale consideration as truck, engine, and other component makers are developing the systems that will support such vehicles,” the council said.
Cummins, one of the largest truck motor makers, announced this spring that it was creating an electrification division with $500 million to be invested in the business over three years.
“Our intention is to provide fully electric and hybrid electric powertrains,” Julie Furber, director of Cummins electrification division, said in an interview with Autocar Professional in April.
“Battery and power-electronic development has progressed to make these trucks viable and other powertrain solutions such as fuel cells are being developed to help reduce adverse consequences,” the council said.
The council, noted, however, that there are challenges in building new infrastructure and finding adequate investment.
The council said it will start with an “Overview of Electric Trucks” and then provide guidance reports on different market segments. Potential studies will cover light-duty delivery, medium-duty box and heavy-duty city, regional and long-haul tractors.
