Energize Weekly, April 11, 2018
Electricity supplies 21 percent of all the energy used in the U.S. and that share is projected to rise to about a third to half of all energy by 2050, according to an assessment by the non-profit Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
“The economic potential for electrification is compelling in many applications, yet realizing this potential requires removing policy and regulatory barriers that impact choice or limit supporting infrastructure,” according to EPRI’s U.S. National Electrification Assessment.
The assessment examined four scenarios to reach its projections of electrical power growth: a conservative scenario with slow technological change; a reference scenario with costs and technology improving over time; a progressive scenario that adds in a $15-a-ton price of carbon emissions starting in 2020; and transformation scenario with a $50-a-ton carbon price.
The share of electrification for final energy use among the scenarios ranges from 32 percent to 47 percent by 2050. In 1950, electricity provided 3 percent of final energy, rising to 21 percent today.
In the transformation scenario, the electricity load rises 52 percent with an annual growth rate of 1.2 percent. By comparison, the annual load growth between 1990 and 2000 was 2.7 percent a year. It dropped to an annual 0.82 percent from 2000 to 2010, as energy efficiency programs took hold and the economy slowed.
“While some of this load growth will be customer-supplied, utilities in most cases will supply capacity to ensure reliability,” the assessment said.
In all scenarios, growth is led by the transportation sector, where 40 percent of the nation’s energy is consumed and two-thirds of that is liquid fuels for passenger vehicles. The assessment, however, finds electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles quickly challenging conventional cars and light trucks.
In a comparison of an EV and an internal-combustion vehicle, using a vehicle traveling 12,000 miles a year—the national average—the study calculated that the conventional car uses 3.5 times as much final energy as the EV and that the EV (being charged from a natural gas combined-cycle plant) emitted a third as much CO2 per mile as the conventional car.
Heating is another area where electricity can be more efficient, the study said. While 80 percent to 90 percent of the energy consumed by a natural gas furnace is delivered as useful heat, electric heat pumps can deliver the same service by consolidating and moving heat from air- or ground-source reservoirs, using one-third to half as much input energy, with no emissions at the home.
There are also opportunities in industry and heavy transportation. Industrial activities account for 30 percent of final energy in the U.S., mainly in manufacturing, agriculture, construction and mining.
While the assessment forecasts a shift in energy sources for different activities, all four scenarios project overall falling energy consumption, as economic growth and the growth in energy services are offset by improved efficiency across the energy system.
This will be driven by advances in individual end uses, such as lighting, variable speed motors and more efficient internal-combustion engine vehicles, as well as a shift from non-electric to more efficient electric operations, the assessment said.
The reference scenario, for example, projects a reduction in economy-wide final energy consumption of 22 percent by 2050, while electricity use grows by 32 percent.
In all four scenarios, natural gas use continues to grow “based on its operational flexibility” and an ongoing cost of around $4 per million British thermal units. Natural gas has also been widely adopted by industry, and that may limit the penetration of electricity into the sector, the EPRI study said.
Renewable energy also continues to grow in all the scenarios, as costs continue to decline and state-level policies emphasize renewable generation and carbon reductions.
In nearly every cost-effective application, electrification also lowers systemwide carbon emissions. Even without a carbon policy, projected CO2 emissions fall 20 percent by 2050 in the reference scenario.
In the transformation scenario, electricity’s projected share of U.S. final energy reaches nearly 50 percent, with emissions falling to nearly 70 percent below 2015 levels.
Among the elements needed to increase electrification of the country are more clean energy generation, grid modernization, continued rapid advances in electrical end uses, new metrics for reliability, upgrading energy efficiency codes and an electricity market designed to send consistent signals to both the supply and demand sides, the study said.
In terms of electric end-uses, the advent of storage batteries, EVs and electrified industrial equipment are all technologies that can shift economic activity to electricity.
The key metrics in the utility industry have focused on resource adequacy, mainly looking at peak demand. “Looking ahead, system reliability may be framed in multiple hours by comprehensively considering system flexibility, natural gas delivery risk, and other factors,” the study said.
