Utility Forecasting Techniques & Applications
March 22-23, 2021 | Online ::
Electric utilities and other load-serving power organizations find themselves besieged on all fronts by data, data and more data. Moreover, perplexing conditions are present that seem difficult to gauge: changes in the mix of supply and demand side resources, the impact of technology on the grid and access it allows to system and customer data, significant shifts in fuel and commodity prices, the emergence of intermittent and variable resources, flat to declining load growth, and so on.
Traditional forecasting practices – some still in circulation from the pre-computer era – trend analysis and other residual methodologies cannot properly capture these unstable conditions. Updated forecasting methods, though, have been developed that take account of behavioral and technological changes affecting electricity use.
This course offers an introduction to forecasting types, practices, and their applications in the utility industry, such as demand forecasting, renewable generation forecasting, and price forecasting — the essential tools for making sense of today’s power environment and delivering proper guidance for industry decision-makers. It will be loaded with examples and illustrations that translate these methodologies into the corollary utility practices. Additionally, the course will cover emerging areas of importance such as preparing forecasts and spatial analysis for electric vehicle growth, distributed solar growth, and the incorporation of demand response programs.
Learning Outcomes
- Identify the cardinal elements of energy forecasting
- Examine EV load forecasting principals, practices and applications
- Evaluate distributed solar forecasting principals, practices and applications
- Assess demand response principals, practices and applications
- Discuss distribution system load forecasting principals, practices and applications and how those are affected by DERs
- Assess utility-scale renewable energy production forecasting principals, practices and applications
- Interpret wholesale energy market price forecasting principals, practices and applications
- Illustrate the outcome of putting all the forecasting disciplines together
Credits
EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.
EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 0.9 CEUs for this course and 0.4 CEUs for the workshop.
Requirements for Successful Completion of Program
Participants must log in each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the event to be eligible for continuing education credit.
Instructional Methods
Case studies, PowerPoint presentations, and panel discussions will be used in this program.
Who Should Attend
Utility planning, economic and finance personnel working in the following areas will derive benefits in attending:
- Load forecasting
- Integrated resource planning
- Generation planning
- Transmission & distribution planning
- Demand side management (DSM), demand response (DR) and energy efficiency (EE)
- Rate design
- Financial
- Operations
- Strategy
- Risk management
- Statisticians and economists
- Analysts
- Energy trading
Monday, March 22, 2021 : All Times Central
8:45 – 9:00 a.m. :: Log In and Welcome
9:00 a.m. – 4:45 p.m. :: Course Timing – Day 1
9:00 – 9:15 a.m. :: Overview & Introductions
9:15 – 9:45 a.m. :: Cardinal Elements of Energy Forecasting
9:45 – 11:15 a.m. :: Load Forecasting
- Terminologies
- Economic Data
- Weather and Usage
- Regression Analysis
- Univariate vs Multivariate Models
- Machine Learning Models (Holden)
- Methodologies and Software / SPSS
- Electric Load Forecast Examples
- Driving Factors
- Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasts
11:15 – 11:30 a.m. :: Morning Break
11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. :: EV Load Forecasting
- Principals and Concepts
- Demand Diversity
- Market and Growth
- Spatial Analysis and Grid Impacts
- Other Considerations (i.e. Hydrogen)
- EV Demand Response Tools
- TOU Pricing
- Load Management
1:00 – 1:45 p.m. :: Break for Lunch
1:45 – 3:15 p.m. :: Distributed Solar Forecasting
- Principals and Concepts
- Demand Diversity
- Market and Growth
- Spatial Analysis and Grid Impacts
- Methodology, Tools and Regulatory Policy
- Rate Design
- Interconnection Policies
- Hosting / Integrated Capacity Analysis…
3:15 – 3:30 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:30 – 4:45 p.m. :: Demand Response
- Principals and Concepts
- System Impacts
Distribution System Load Forecasting
- Principals and Concepts
- System to Circuit Load Forecasting
- Spatial Analysis and Grid Impacts
4:45 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for Day
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 : All Times Central
8:45 – 9:00 a.m. :: Log In and Welcome
9:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Course Timing – Day 2
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Utility Scale Renewable Energy Production Forecasting
- Wind
- Concepts
- Methodologies and Tools
- Planning Level vs Bankable Methods
- Solar (PHX)
- Concepts
- Methodologies and Tools (PV Syst & NREL SAM)
- Planning Level vs Bankable Methods
10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break
10:45 – 11:45 a.m. :: Wholesale Energy Market Price Forecasting
- Principals, Concepts and Methods
- Fundamental Inputs
- Peak and Energy Demand
- Fuels (e.g. natural gas, coal, etc.)
- Policy (e.g. carbon or renewable standards)
- G&T Adjustments
- Methodologies and Tools
- Price Forecast Examples
11:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Stitching It All Together
12:15 p.m. :: Course Adjournment
Geographic Load Forecasting & Analysis
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 : Central Time
Overview
The application of a load forecast to a geographic region can provide actionable information to utilities engaged in any number of planning endeavors. The ability to visualize projected load alongside existing infrastructure is a critical tool – not only for identifying regions of an electric system at risk of voltage and/or thermal limitations, but also in the development of projects that address these limitations efficiently. An effective geospatial load forecast is fast becoming a requisite tool for utilities as the proliferation of electric vehicles and distributed generation continues. This half-day session will provide attendees with a process for turning a load forecast and/or load data into a geo-spatial visualization tool useful in a variety of subsequent planning efforts.
Learning Outcomes
- Identify data sources and load development of a load forecast for a geographic region
- Examine geographic sub-region definition and load aggregation requirements
- Assess further analysis tools, such as electrical compliance evaluation and integration with multiple platforms
Agenda
12:45 – 1:00 p.m. :: Log In and Welcome
1:00 – 5:00 p.m. :: Workshop Timing
1:00 – 1:15 p.m. :: Introductions & Overview
1:15 – 2:15 p.m. :: Data Sources and Load Development
- SCADA/telemetry data
- Billing system extracts
- Geographic information system (GIS) database
- Link to system load forecast
2:15 – 3:00 p.m. :: Geographic Subregion Definition and Load Aggregation
- Load grid granularity
- Bundled loads and allocation to grid
- Circuit assignment
3:00 – 3:15 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:15 – 4:00 p.m. :: Geographic Subregion Definition and Load Aggregation (cont’d)
4:00 – 5:00 p.m. :: Next Steps and Further Analysis Tools
- Electrical compliance evaluation
- Integration with Load Flow Platform
- Integration with GIS Platform
5:00 p.m. :: Workshop Adjournment
Craig Brown, Project Manager of Financial Analysis & Rate Design – Utility Consulting, 1898 & Co (part of Burns & McDonnell)
Jeff Chapman, Advisor – Grid Modernization and Utility Consulting, 1898 & Co (part of Burns & McDonnell)
Matthew Lind, Director – Resource Planning and Market Assessments, 1898 & Co (part of Burns & McDonnell)
Adam Young, Director of Finance & Rates – Utility Consulting Resource, 1898 & Co (part of Burns & McDonnell)
We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.
- IMPORTANT NOTE: After November 30 you will not be able to join a Teams meeting using Internet Explorer 11. Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
- You will receive a meeting invitation will include a link to join the meeting.
- Separate meeting invitations will be sent for the morning and afternoon sessions of the course.
- You will need to join the appropriate meeting at the appropriate time.
- If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
- The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.
REGISTER NOW FOR THIS EVENT:
Utility Forecasting Techniques & Applications
March 22-23, 2021 | Online
| Individual attendee(s) - $ 1195.00 each | |
Buy 4 in-person seats and only pay for 3! For this event every fourth in-person attendee is free!
RELATED WORKSHOPS:
Geographic Load Forecasting & Analysis
March 21
| Individual attendee(s) - $ 495.00 each | |
Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before February 19, 2021 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800
