Oil & Gas Forecasting

April 25, 2019 | Denver, CO ::

0419-oil-gas-forecasting

Revenue planning for jurisdictions with oil-dominant economies depends on how well oil production forecasts within these jurisdictions could be developed. Reservoir engineering techniques are required in forecasting oil production from online fields. Forecasting production from online fields often, even when done properly, still provide a conservative outlook for the jurisdiction because it excludes projects that could come online in the future. Forecasting production from probable, possible and of highly uncertain projects requires skills that go beyond the purview of typical reservoir engineering. This is where economic risking and statistical methods come in.

To conduct such forecasts, the forecaster is faced with the questions: will these new projects occur? If they occur, when could they occur? And if they occur, how could they contribute to production outlook for my region? How these questions are answered will determine how confident revenue planners can be in developing dependable short, medium and long term outlook for the region. Once that outlook is generated, another major hurdle for most technical analysts is to communicate clearly what these results mean? Without this half of the equation, the analysis results are not actionable for policy makers and other stakeholders.

This course examines techniques on how to conduct country level and basin wide forecasts. In addition, it will train you on how to communicate your results in a manner that informs planning for the future of your jurisdiction.

Learning Outcomes

• Review oil production forecasting concepts
• Discuss models used in conventional oil and tight oil forecasting
• Explain probabilistic oil production forecasting
• Describe techniques in probabilistic oil production forecasting
• Discuss popular tools used in forecasting and shortcomings/advantages of each
• Parsing historical data: impact and handling of seasonality in forecasting
• Forecasting production from highly uncertain projects
• Describe how to produce asset level, play level, region-wide or country-wide forecasts encompassing projects at different maturity levels
• Participate in hands-on activities on case studies
• Discuss how forecasts are communicated to technical and non-technical audiences

Credits

EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.5 CEUs for this event.

 

Requirements for Successful Completion of Program

Participants must sign in/out each day, be in attendance for the entirety of the course

Instructional Methods

Power Point presentations and open discussion will be used

Thursday, April 25, 2019

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. :: Course Timing

12:00 – 1:00 p.m. :: Group Luncheon

Oil Production Forecasting Models

• Overview of oil production forecasting models
• Classical reservoir engineering models
• Tight oil forecasting models

Models Used in Conventional and Tight Oil Forecasting

• Application of classical oil production models
  • Arps exponential, hyperbolic, harmonic models
• Application of tight oil production models:
  • Power Law, Logistic Growth, Stretched Exponential, Duong’s models

Probabilistic Oil Production Forecasting

• Overview of statistical concepts in oil production forecasting

Techniques in Probabilistic Oil Production Forecasting

• Bootstrap methods
• Decline envelopes
• Deriving type wells

Popular Tools Used in Forecasting  

• Oil Field Manager Software
• DrillingInfo Software
• Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet tools

Friday, April 26, 2019

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. :: Course Timing

12:00 – 1:00 p.m. :: Group Luncheon

Impact and Handling of Seasonality in Forecasting

• Parsing historical data trends and breaks
• Handling seasonal trends

Forecasting Production from Highly Uncertain Projects

• Project risk considerations during forecasting
• Techniques for developing risk-weighted production outlook

Rolling Up Entire Asset/Portfolio Outlooks: Combining Online Projects and Yet to Sanction Projects in One Place, While Honoring the Risk Profiles of Each

• Project level roll-up
• Asset level roll-up
• Country level roll – up

Conducting Regional Forecasts for US Tight Oil Plays

Overview of US Tight Oil and Gas Plays

• Permian
• Bakken
• Eagle Ford
• Niobrara
• Marcellus
• Utica
• Haynesville
• Anadarko

Regional Forecast: Deterministic Scenarios

• Reference production case
• Side cases:
  • High production case
  • Low production case

Participate in Hands-On Activities on Case Studies 

Discuss How Forecasts are Communicated to Technical and Non-Technical Audiences

• Deterministic Forecasts
• Probabilistic Forecasts

Maduabuchi Pascal Umekwe, Commercial Analyst, Alaska Division of Oil & Gas

Dr. Maduabuchi Pascal Umekwe is a petroleum engineer and commercial analyst with Bachelors and Master’s Degrees in Petroleum Engineering, and a PhD in Petroleum Economics.

He has spent almost a decade in the oil and gas business as field engineer, development petroleum engineer and commercial analyst. His work experience spans tight oil and conventional oil and gas basins, and he conducts research on engineering, economic and environmental management aspects of US tight oil development. He has also worked as an adjunct faculty in the School of Management at the Alaska Pacific University and currently works in Alaska, where he conducts oil production forecasts, economic decision analysis, cash flow modeling and involved in various aspects of oil and gas development negotiations.

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Oil & Gas Forecasting

April 25, 2019 | Denver, CO