LMP Modeling, Analysis & Forecasting

November 14-15, 2024 | Online :: Central Time

1124-lmp

“This course is exactly what I was looking for to better understand price formation and dispatch in the electricity market.  The speaker is the only industry expert who addresses this topic in such complete detail.”  Associate, EDF Renewables

“Great way to learn how LMPs are calculated.” Rates and Policy Director, Northwest Requirements Utilities

“This course provided the insights into price formations that has taken my understanding to the next level.”  Market Operations Engineer, ERCOT

Read more

“Explains a relatively unclear subject.” Economist, Bonneville Power Administration

“Love the suggestions for further reading.” Market Analyst, Southwest Power Pool

“Presentation highly organized. Speaker extremely knowledgeable and very clear in his explanations. Very extensive research conducted in preparation for presentation.” Senior System Metering Engineer, Tri State G&T

“Excellent approach: we can read formal textbook LP descriptions ourselves but this added valuable intuition.” Principal Economics & Business Advisor – Transmission Planning, Xcel Energy

“EUCI’s LMP Modeling, Analysis and Forecasting course with Nick Pratley offered a deep dive into the world of LMPs that benefited greatly from Nick’s real world experience & thorough teachings.“ Transmission Planning Engineer, Western Energy Coordinating Council (WECC)

This course examines the value of understanding and forecasting electricity prices in the wholesale markets.  The information will benefit anyone who deals with current and future locational marginal prices (LMPs) in wholesale electric markets by providing a deeper understanding of what drives them:

• the complexity of supplying electrical energy around the clock
• across an imperfect transmission grid
• from a variety of suppliers
• without benefit of large-scale storage or rationing

It addresses itself to wholesale power market participants who confront these questions:

1. How should I price “market risk” in my proposed project?
2. Why is my existing project suffering and what can I do about it?
3. What makes a credible LMP forecast?

The content will cover guidance about forecasting prices – with or without sophisticated modeling tools – in the face of new policies, an evolving resource mix and changing market rules. Emphasis will be placed on describing U.S. locational marginal pricing (LMP) style markets.  Going beyond the traditional three-bus LMP example, attendees will learn how the market forms prices in the real world.  Attendees will become familiar with how this knowledge supports decision-making, trading, and negotiation.  Following a review of LMP formation, real-world situations will be dissected using publicly available data.  Finally, some solved “what-if” examples will illustrate the impact on LMPs of emerging bulk power developments using a simplified market model.  For those attendees who want to understand what some people call “magic”, an optional related workshop is dedicated to exposing the mathematics that solve for “what-if” examples.

Learning Outcomes

Using real-world situations and illustrative examples, this instructional course will:

• Review the characteristics of Locational Marginal Prices
• Discuss the value of forecast accuracy in multiple use cases
• Explain the underlying structure that determines electricity prices
• Illustrate locational marginal price (LMP) formation
• Address real-world applications, questions and solutions
• Review four time horizons and the appropriate price forecasting approaches for each
• Demonstrate what can be done with and without sophisticated modeling tools

Thursday, November 14, 2024 : Central Time

9:00 – 9:15 a.m. :: Overview and Introductions

9:15 – 10:30 a.m. :: Characteristics Of Wholesale Electricity Prices

• Nodal and Zonal locations
• Day-Ahead and Real-Time LMPs (1-hour and 5-minute intervals)
• Periodicity and Seasonality
• Typical distributions
• Trends, Correlations and Averages
• Discontinuities (regime shifts over time)
• Spikes (positive and negative)
• Negative prices
• Predictability over different time horizons
• Prediction accuracy required for various applications
  • Resource siting decision (which market, state and substation)
  • Resource investment and retirement decisions
  • Generation bidding (gas nomination, water release, etc.)
  • Transmission expansion plans
  • Generation investment and retirement decisions
  • PPA negotiation (CfD, basis, curtailment, negative LMP risks)
  • Trading (physical, virtual, speculative)
  • Financial transmission rights (FTR /TCR /TCC /CRR)
  • Regulatory and legislative (market reform debate)
  • Mark-to-Model

10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:45 – 11:30 a.m. :: Two Categories of Price Forecasting Models

• Fundamentals-based
  • Economic dispatch and constrained power flow
  • Transmission network model needed
  • Individual generator economics and location
  • Consumer location in the network
• Data-driven
  • Time series, regression, ARIMA, ANN
  • Machine learning
  • Physics-informed models
• Addressing uncertainty of forecast inputs

11:30 – 11:45 a.m. :: Behind the Scenes of Electricity Markets

• Demand forecasting
• Unit commitment
• Economic dispatch
• Operating reserves
• Power flow

11:45 a.m. – 12:45 p.m. :: Components of Locational Marginal Prices

• Marginal energy
• Marginal loss
• Marginal congestion
• Shadow prices
• Shift factors

12:45 – 1:30 p.m. :: Break for Lunch

1:30 – 3:00 p.m. :: LMP Analysis Leads to LMP Forecasting

• Forecasting hub LMP versus node (generator) LMP
• Discontinuity from the past (ex: a new transmission line)
• Forecasting LMP components vs. forecasting LMP
• Bespoke models for nodes versus simulating the entire market
• Fundamentals vs. time series (historical prices)

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

3:15 – 4:45 p.m. :: Real-World Applications

• Data sources and detective work
• LMP forecasts depend on forecasts of the inputs
• Measuring error, gaining confidence
• Predicting negative LMPs
• Predicting LMP spikes (up and down)
• Good sites for renewables and storage
• “Fair” forecasting vs. risk analysis
• Real Time vs. Day Ahead LMPs
• Credibility, transparency, defensibility

4:45 p.m. :: Course Adjoins for Day

 

Friday, November 15, 2024 : Central Time

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. :: Long-term (5 – 25 years) Price Forecasting

• Forecasting under uncertainty (scenario building)
• Why history is not a good predictor of the (renewable) future
• Production cost model with deterministic and stochastic inputs
• Capacity expansion model with exogenous inputs
• Iterating to get a consistent outlook
• Expecting the unexpected

10:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Mid-term (1 – 10 years) Price Forecasting

• Impactful inputs for forecasting hub and node LMP
• Statistical models
• Production cost models (market software simulation)
• Change is the only constant

10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:45 – 11:15 a.m. :: Short-term (1 week – 1 year) Price Forecasting

• Parameters and input variables
• Time series / statistical models
• Machine learning
• Production cost models
• Strengths and weaknesses, pitfalls, accuracy

11:15 – 11:45 a.m. :: Intra-day and Next-day Price Forecasting

• Choosing and Updating Inputs
• Time Series / Statistical Models
• Machine Learning
• Supplemental information (e.g., planned outages)

11:45a.m.  – 12:15 p.m. :: Intra-day and Next-day Price Forecasting

• Choosing and Updating Inputs
• Time Series / Statistical Models
• Machine Learning
• Supplemental information (e.g., planned outages)

12:15 – 12:45 p.m. :: What Can Be Done without Coding

• Creating models in MS Excel
• Scenario-building
• Consultants

12:45 p.m. :: Course Adjourns

Nicholas Pratley has worked in electrical power systems analysis and design for more than three decades.  He began his career as a consulting engineer designing power distribution for heavy industrial projects and moved on to become a subject matter expert in power systems analysis for software vendors and consulting firms.  Mr. Pratley has experience with generation interconnection studies and transmission planning, including more than 15 years in electricity market simulation and price forecasting.  He has received training on Plexos, GE MAPS and PROMOD IV production cost models, and provided training and consulting services using PROMOD for many years.  

His clients over the years have included transmission owners and developers, municipal utilities deciding whether to join an ISO market or where to construct a new generating plant, competitive generation (IPP) developers forecasting transmission congestion risk for wind/solar/storage project siting and contract negotiation, and pension funds investing in renewable generation projects. His work has influenced decisions to acquire, divest, build or invest in dozens of projects worth multiple billions of dollars.

In his current professional capacity, Mr. Pratley focuses on the U.S. northeast wholesale electricity markets, federal and state policy, and transmission plans with respect to large-scale renewable energy development.  He also prepares and presents training courses using his expertise in LMP wholesale electricity markets.  He earned B.S. and M.S. degrees in Electrical Engineering at McGill University and the Universite de Montreal polytechnical school.

We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.

• Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
• You will receive a separate email with a unique link to a personalized landing page which will include links to join all sessions of this event.
• If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
• The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.

Please Note: This event is being conducted entirely online. All attendees will connect and attend from their computer, one connection per purchase. For details please see our FAQ

If you are unable to attend at the scheduled date and time, we make recordings available to all attendees for 7 days after the event

REGISTER NOW FOR THIS EVENT:

LMP Modeling, Analysis & Forecasting

November 14-15, 2024 | Online

Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before October 11, 2024 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800

Credits

EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this event

Verify our IACET accreditation

Who recognizes IACET Credits?

Instructional Methods 

This program will use PowerPoint Presentations and group discussions. 

Requirements For a Successful Completion of Program 

Participants must log in each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the event to be eligible for continuing education credit

---

Upon successful completion of this event, program participants interested in receiving CPE credits will receive a certificate of completion.

Course CPE Credits: 12.0
There is no prerequisite for this Course.
Program field of study: Specialized Knowledge
Program Level: Basic
Delivery Method: Group Internet Based
Advanced Preparation: None

EUCI is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its web site: www.nasbaregistry.org

 

 

Who Should Attend

Representative Organizations

• Independent power producers (IPPs)
• Load-serving entities (LSEs) and utilities
• Local distribution companies (LDCs)
• Merchant power ventures
• Merchant transmission providers
• Wholesale trading companies
• Power marketers
• Energy service providers/companies (ESPs/ESCOs)
• Smart grid resource providers
• Demand response providers/aggregators
• Large energy customers
• Consumer advocates
• Regulatory counsel
• State regulatory staff

Responsibilities

• Generation bidding
• Scheduling
• Asset management
• Marketing and business development
• Financial marketers
• Power trading
• Power supply analyst
• Contract administrators and analysts
• Energy management
• Revenue assurance
• Energy operations and supply
• Retail load supply
• Structured power
• Bulk power
• Energy finance and analysis
• Confirmation administration
• Procurement management