Fossil-fuel producing countries set to blow past climate targets for oil, natural gas, and coal
Energize Weekly, November 15, 2023
Fossil-fuel producing countries are set to turn out double the amount of coal, oil, and natural gas between now and 2050 needed to keep the increase in global warming to goals set by the Paris Agreement, according to a United Nations analysis.
The study looked at the policies and public announcements of governments and companies in the 20 largest fossil-fuel producing countries.
“Taken together, government plans and projections would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050,” the report said.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, 196 countries pledged to try to keep the increase in global average temperatures limited to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (C).
The gap, however, between the emission levels to meet those targets and the projected increases in fossil-fuel emissions is growing, according to the report – the fourth UN “gap report” since 2019.
“While 17 of the 20 countries profiled have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, and many have launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil-fuel production activities, most continue to promote, subsidize, support, and plan on the expansion of fossil-fuel production,” the report said.
“None have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C,” the study noted.
In 2022, oil and gas companies increased their upstream investments by 39 percent to nearly $500 billion worldwide, the highest level since 2014, and some major energy companies have curbed plans to reduce oil and gas production and shift investments to renewables.
Production and use of fossil fuels have reached record high levels, the analysis said, and if global carbon dioxide emissions, the main greenhouse gas, continue at the current pace, the world could exceed the remaining emissions budget compatible with a 50 percent chance of limiting long-term warming to 1.5° C by 2030.
Burning fossil fuels accounts for 90 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. “The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk,” according to the UN report.
The gap analysis found that combined governments and companies are planning on producing around 110 percent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5° C and 69 percent more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C.
Over time, the gap will continue to grow if projected fossil-fuel development plans and investments are made reaching 350 percent – equal to an extra 29 gigatons of carbon dioxide – for the 1.5º C target and 150 percent above levels consistent with limiting warming to 2º C.
Oil-producing countries in the group are set to churn out an excess of 26 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2030 or 29 percent higher than 1.5º C target emissions. For natural gas producers, the gap will be 2.2 trillion cubic meters in 2030, 82 percent higher than the target.
The projected near-term increase in oil is led by Brazil, Canada, the Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., the report said.
Of the 17 oil-producing countries evaluated, seven expected relatively flat or increasing levels of annual oil production from 2021 until 2040-2050 period.
For gas, the near-term increase is led by China, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, and the U.S., while eight countries expect relatively flat or increasing levels of annual gas production from 2021 until the 2035–2050 period.
“The war in Ukraine and the ensuing disruption in gas supplies, including record high prices on international markets, have spurred plans for and investments in liquefied natural gas infrastructure by exporters and importers alike,” the report said.
Government plans for coal show a short-term increase out to 2030 before a decline, with the production gap dropping to 4.8 billion tons in 2050 from 6.9 billion tons in 2030.
Near-term increases in coal production are led by India, Indonesia, and Russia, while production in Australia, Colombia and Kazakhstan is projected to be relatively flat or slightly increasing between 2021 and 2030.
The long-term decline in global coal production is led by China, where domestic coal production is forecast to decrease steeply between 2030 and 2050 in alignment with the country’s 2060 carbon-neutrality goal.
“The 2023 Production Gap report is a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness,” António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, said in a statement. “It reveals that governments are on track to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be needed to limit the global temperature rise.”
