Renewables, cleantech sector will grow regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election
Energize Weekly, September 18, 2024
The results of the U.S. presidential election – even if there is a victory by Donald Trump – will likely not derail growth in the renewable energy and cleantech sectors, according to an analysis by energy consultant Rystad Energy.
Kamala Harris and Democrats have been supportive of green energy, with the Biden administration passing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, providing more than $300 billion in energy tax credits, loans, and grants.
Trump has been critical of renewable energy, cleantech manufacturing, and the IRA, saying that he would rescind any unspent dollars from the act.
The dilemma for Republicans, however, is that a prime recipient for IRA money have been red states and congressional districts, with nearly half of all new, large-scale clean energy projects located in the South, according to E2, a business group supporting cleantech.
“Cleantech is increasingly becoming a bipartisan success story in the U.S.,” Lars Nitter Havro, Rystad Energy’s head of energy macro research, said in a statement. “This is underscored by our analysis, which shows the bulk of cleantech projects, from solar and batteries to hydrogen and carbon capture, are located in Republican strongholds.”
For example, Mississippi has received $500 million in federal aid, but that is seed money for a “green steel” plant and a privately developed $2 billion hydrogen storage hub, according to E2 data.
Georgia has $15.3 billion in IRA-linked projects, North Carolina $19.7 billion, Kentucky $2 billion, and Alabama $1.6 billion.
The division among congressional districts is even more pronounced with Republican districts home to an estimated $106 billion in projects supporting 77,000 jobs compared to $16.4 billion and 28,000 jobs in Democratic districts, E2 said.
North Carolina’s 9th district, represented by Republican Rep. Richard Hudson, is the top IRA project recipient with nearly $9.9 billion, followed Georgia Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk’s 11th district with $6.6 billion in projects.
“The continued investment in cleantech industries highlights the economic benefits of renewable energy and underscores the impact of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act,” the Rystad Energy analysis said.
The trend in building new cleantech and renewable energy installations is expected to be “particularly pronounced” in Republican states like Oklahoma, Iowa, Florida, and Texas, where substantial investments in manufacturing and other infrastructure are driving a surge in job creation, the energy consultant said.
Rystad Energy projects that by 2030, these states will account for 57 percent of all U.S. battery cell manufacturing capacity and 59 percent of solar PV cell and module production, as well as 95 percent of all hydrogen production capacity and 83 percent of carbon capture capacity.
The chances of repealing the IRA remains low, Rystad Energy said, even with a Republican Senate majority, because of concerns over economic competitiveness, job creation, and the need to counter China.
“If the Republican party wins the 2024 presidential election, the incoming administration will inherit the IRA and numerous pre-approved clean energy projects, making it unlikely that these initiatives would be abandoned,” Rystad Energy said.
“Despite a mixed record on cleantech, fossil fuel production during Trump’s presidency was lower than current levels under Biden, and the growth of investments maintained a striking similarity, indicating a persistent momentum in U.S. decarbonization efforts,” the analysis said.
