Energize Weekly, May 23, 2018
The world could face a “cold crunch” as electricity demand for air conditioning is projected to triple by 2050—unless steps are taken to make cooling technology more efficient, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report.
Air conditioners (AC) and electric fans already account for 10 percent of all global energy consumption. If there is a threefold increase, it will become one of the top drivers of electricity demand, the IEA said.
In some regions, such as the Middle East or the southern United States, space cooling can already make up 70 percent of peak electric demand on hot days. The average across all countries is space cooling accounting for 14 percent of peak demand in 2016.
Air conditioners in buildings are projected to grow to 5.6 billion in 2050 from the current 1.6 billion units, the agency said. Between 1990 and 2016, annual sales of AC units nearly quadrupled to 135 million.
The rapid growth—the projected pace is 10 air conditions units being sold every second for the next 30 years—will require “new electricity capacity the equivalent to the combined electricity capacity of the United States, the EU and Japan today,” the IEA said.
“Growing electricity demand for air conditioning is one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate,” Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, said in a statement. “With rising incomes, air conditioner ownership will skyrocket, especially in the emerging world. While this will bring extra comfort and improve daily lives, it is essential that efficiency performance for ACs be prioritized. Standards for the bulk of these new ACs are much lower than where they should be.”
Just upgrading standards to the best available cooling technology can have an impact, the agency said. Japanese and the European Union air conditioners, for example, are about 25 percent more efficient than those sold in the United States and China.
“Efficiency improvements could cut the energy growth from AC demand in half through mandatory energy performance standards,” the IEA said.
The rise in cooling demand will be particularly important in the hotter regions of the world where 2.8 billion people live, with only 8 percent of households having air conditioning, the agency said.
By contrast, in the U.S. and Japan, more than 90 percent of households have AC. Globally less than a third of households own an air conditioner.
Fast-growing areas in the developing world, such as India, will be particularly sensitive to the transition to more space cooling. In India, the share of AC in peak electricity load could reach 45 percent in 2050, up from 10 percent today, if no steps are taken, the IEA said.
The result would be the need for large investments in new power plants to meet peak power demand at night, which cannot be met with solar photovoltaic technology.
To blunt the impact of increased global air conditioning the IEA proposed an “Efficient Cooling Scenario” that focuses on improving efficiency standards for air conditioners and building energy codes.
The scenario would lead to a 45 percent reduction in electricity demand to 3,400 terawatt-hours compared to a baseline scenario of business as usual.
As a result of the lower demand, the Efficient Cooling Scenario also reduces the need to build new generation capacity to meet peak demand.
“Worldwide, the need for additional capacity up to 2050 just to meet the demand from ACs is 1,300 gigawatts (GW) lower in the Efficient Cooling Scenario, the equivalent of all the coal-fired power generation capacity in China and India today,” the IEA said.
The reductions in demand and generation would also add up to a sharp drop in projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emission with the efficient scenario emitting 93 percent less of CO2, about 150 million tons, than the baseline.
The efficient scenario would also save an estimated $2.9 trillion in lower energy bills by 2050, according to the IEA study.
“Setting higher efficiency standards for cooling is one of the easiest steps governments can take to reduce the need for new power plants, and allow them at the same time to cut emissions and reduce costs,” Birol said.
