Energize Weekly, June 20, 2018
The solar industry posted a 13 percent year-over-year increase in the first quarter of 2018 as 2.5 gigawatts (GW) were installed, according to the U.S. Solar Market Insight report.
Installations for the year, however, are projected to be flat compared to 2017 with a total of 10.8 gigawatts of installations, the market analysis by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association said.
Photovoltaic (PV) solar was also the main source of all generating capacity for the quarter, accounting for 55 percent. Wind accounted for another 40 percent.
The residential PV market was basically flat in the first quarter compared to year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter figures with 562 megawatts (MW) of installations. It is projected to remain flat for the rest of the year, but that comes after the market fell 15 percent in 2016.
“Residential PV shows some signs of improvement over 2017,” the analysis said.
Non-residential solar grew 23 percent year-over-year, making the first quarter of 2018 the fourth-largest quarter for non-residential solar with 509 MW installed.
The non-residential installations in the quarter dropped 34 percent compared with the last quarter of 2017, which was the largest quarter ever for non-residential PV, in part the result of a rush to grandfather favorable pricing plans in California and the Northeast, as well as Minnesota’s continued a robust solar gardens program.
Utility-scale solar remained the largest share of new PV capacity with 1.4 GW installed in the first quarter, making it the 10th consecutive quarter of more than 1 GW of installations, with another 19.2 GW of projects in the pipeline.
Going forward the market faces some tough sledding, according to the analysis.
For residential PV, “major markets are still exhibiting signs of weakness, as seven of the top 10 state markets fell year-over-year as the lingering effects of national installer pullback still had clear impacts on the market,” the report said.
Three of the four top markets are expected to contract in 2018 for the second consecutive year, but that will be offset by growth in emerging markets, such as Nevada and Florida.
The future of utility-scale will be impacted by a 30 percent tariff imposed on crystalline silicon solar modules and cells by the Trump administration.
In the near term, developers will be insulated since many secured module supplies before the tariff was imposed or are using thin-film PV, which is not subject to the tariff. “But in the longer term, the impacts of these tariffs are significant—several developers have announced project cancelations, and more are in negotiations to restructure their PPAs [power purchase agreements] due to the higher costs resulting from the tariffs,” the market study said.
The analysis predicts total installed U.S. PV will more than double over the next five years, with 2023 annual installations of more than 14 GW.
